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About Me


Darren Winters is a self made investment multi-millionaire and successful entrepreneur. Amongst
his many businesses he owns the number 1 investment training company in the UK and Europe.
This company provides training courses in stock market, forex and property investing and since
the year 2000 has successfully trained over 250,000 people.


Showing posts with label exchange rates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label exchange rates. Show all posts

Thursday, 29 May 2014

The Financial Crisis and UK Bank Scandals




In September 2007 the UK banking industry began exhibiting symptoms of the financial crisis that started in America in 2006. Northern Rock was in trouble and had to ask the Bank of England for help. When news of this got out customers started queuing around the block to withdraw their money. In 2008 Northern Rock was nationalised, and in 2012 it was bought by Virgin Money.

Today the banking industry can be seen to be on the road to recovery. But on that road there have been potholes of controversy. I'm thinking Libor, excessive bonuses, payment protection mis-selling and foreign exchange manipulation, to name a few.

But before we look at those in a bit more detail, let's quickly recap on the financial crisis and what it did to UK banking. To do that we need to start in the States.

In 2006 American banks started seeing a rapid rate of default against sub-prime mortgages. These mortgages were granted to high risk customers, many of whom didn't understand what they were getting into, and had difficulties repaying the loans. The banks must take some responsibility for their loose lending principles. For instance, they were happy to lend to NINJAs - customers with No Income, No Job or Assets. And they also offered 'teaser' type mortgages, with an initially low interest rate that was hiked up sharply a few months later. With such a rate of default the price of houses dropped substantially, and your average American became poorer, with many becoming homeless.

Banks tried to mitigate their risk by selling bundles of mortgages to secondary buyers such as investment banks. In a process known as securitization, those secondary buyers might once again re-package the mortgages and sell them as bonds or as something called a Collateralised Mortgage Obligation. Essentially investors in these products are being paid with the interest generated by the underlying mortgages. But as defaults increased the value of these securities decreased.

Banks tried to cover their risk on these CMO's by buying insurance against default, using an instrument known as a credit default swap. The sellers of these swaps then covered themselves against the risk of the swap they'd just sold by buying yet another credit default swap. It was getting complex. When mortgage defaults caused a drop in the value of collateralized mortgage obligations, the credit default swaps had to pay up, and banks started seeing significant losses. The reduced liquidity led to a freeze in trading of CMO's, then the banks stopped lending to each other altogether.

Enter Northern Rock, who needed this short term lending to maintain business as usual. We know what happened to them subsequently. Banks all over the world were suffering losses by this stage, and headlines were made when US bank Bear Stearns had to go to the Federal Reserve for funding. They were taken over by JP Morgan shortly afterwards. Then the floodgates opened, with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 prompting a consolidation of banks (Lloyds bought HBOS, Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch). The whole financial system was under such a strain at this point that government intervention was required.

The UK government propped up Lloyds/HBOS and RBS with around £37 billion of taxpayer's money. Interest rates were cut from 5% in September 2008, and by March 2009 they were at 0.5%.  At the same time guarantees were given to savers that their deposits up to £50,000 would be covered (now £85,000). In 2009 further government support was needed, and according to The Independent the bill was up to £850 billion by December of that year. The Bank of England began its quantitative easing program in March of 2009 to pump more money into the system, and since 2010 some stability has returned to the banking sector.

Of course businesses suffered from the lack of lending during the crisis, and ordinary people were affected as a result. The public trust in banks took a knock, and people were less than pleased that it was billions of pounds of their taxes that bailed out the 'irresponsible bankers'.

Public perception has continued in a negative vein, fed initially by the revelation that banks continued to pay exorbitant bonuses on both sides of the Atlantic during the bailout period. In the U.S. it was reported that nine banks paid out $32.6 billion in bonuse in 2008, while at the same time receiving $175 billion in government aid. In the UK around £12 billion was paid in bonuses in 2008. The continuing disquiet about the level of bonuses paid led to the European Union legislating a cap on bonuses. However, banks and other financial institutions in the UK have been creative about getting round the cap, by in some instances increasing share allocations and raising the basic salary of their top executives.

The mis-selling of payment protection insurance goes back over ten years. The banks found these a very profitable product as they only ever paid out on around 15% of policies sold. These policies pay the borrower's premiums if he/she is ill or loses their job. The complaint against the banks is that the policies were expensive and often sold as part of the package, without the customer's knowledge. In 2006 the FSA began imposing fines for mis-selling, and since then the claims have snowballed. The banks have been forced to put aside billions of pounds to meet them.

Then in 2012 the Libor scandal hit. Libor is the interbank lending rate, and was set on a daily basis by a panel of banks in London. It transpired that some banks were manipulating the rate to gain a trading advantage, or to give a false impression of creditworthiness. Europe and America were affected, with various lawsuits being brought in America against banks on the grounds that mortgage payments were too expensive, or in the case of local authorities that payments on bonds they had bought were too low. Barclays, to name just one bank, was fined hundreds of millions of dollars and lost a CEO, Bob Diamond, as a result of the scandal. After investigations and suggestions of reform, the Libor rate is now no longer administered by the British Bankers Association, but by a new independent administrator appointed by the FCA. The irony is that Libor manipulation probably goes back 20 years and seems to have been regarded as almost a business as usual activity.

If that wasn't enough, in mid 2013 allegations surfaced of another manipulation, this time of the daily foreign exchange rates. Forex traders across several banks were allegedly colluding to set a daily benchmark rate used by corporate customers. Again, this is something that may have been going on for ten years or more. As a result the banks concerned are under investigation and several traders have been suspended. Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, told a Treasury Select Committee in March that the allegations are "as serious as Libor, if not more so".

Just a selection of questionable banking practices then. In the last five years there were also money laundering offences, credit card insurance mis-selling, rogue and insider trading - the list goes on. If money wasn't devalued by inflation I'd just convert all my assets into cash and stick it under the mattress. Maybe I'll be offered a collateralized mortgage obligation instead - who could resist? 

Darren Winters




Thursday, 22 May 2014

Travel Money - Buy now if you can Afford it!!



Sterling has enjoyed a strong run so far this year and has reached 5 year highs against a number of currencies in some of the more popular destinations for British tourists. The question ahead of the summer break for holidaymakers is, will this last or should they be buying their holiday cash now? Those who are cautious may want to take advantage of the rates currently on offer as they are likely to be higher now than when they bought the holiday, however there is a strong chance that sterling will appreciate further.
To illustrate these rises, in the last 12 months, the British Pound is up by 25.77% against the Turkish Lira, up 21.83% against the Brazilian Real, up 16.44% against the Australian dollar, up 20.21% against the Thai Baht, up 18.66% against the Malaysian Ringgit, up 17.77% against the Canadian Dollar, up 4.44% against the New Zealand Dollar, up 10.11% against the US Dollar and 3.87% against the Euro.



The strong UK economy relative to other major economies is providing support to Sterling with investors able to achieve a good return from buying the pound.
According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (the OECD) UK GDP growth is estimated to reach 3.2% this year whilst America is estimated to reach 2.6%, Australia 2.6%, Canada 2.5% and Europe 1.2%. As a result of the improving economic picture in the UK speculation continues as to how soon the Bank of England will begin to raise interest rates. When interest rates in the UK do rise there is likely to be even more demand for sterling especially as this would be the first move higher by any Western nation. To date New Zealand is the only country to raise rates.
The debate on the likely date for an interest rate rise was in focus again this week following the release of the Bank of England’s latest quarterly inflation report which showed contrasting outlooks for interest rates, growth, inflation and unemployment.
It is advisable to always shop around for the best currency deal for your holiday as early as possible. Foreign exchange rates available from banks on the high street or travel agents can usually be beaten if you are prepared to pre-order by telephone or online, and the currency can even be delivered to you free of charge. The Post Office usually has reasonable rates too and also offers a Prepaid Travel Money Card if you pre-order from them on which you pay zero commission. 



The Prepaid Travel Money Card is accepted in 210 countries and also offers purchasers the ability to check the balance and top up the card via the internet, SMS, or a smartphone app. The card is used like a debit card wherever MasterCard is accepted and can also be used to withdraw currency at ATMs, although there is usually a charge for cash withdrawals. It is secure in that it has no direct link to your bank account should it be stolen.
Similar cards are available from other providers such as Travelex, Caxton, FairFX and Lebara. It is worth using a comparison site to check the various conditions, fees and charges. These cards allow you to buy foreign currency when the exchange rate is favourable as well as being flexible enough to allow you to top them up as and when the funds are available to you.
One place to avoid exchanging currency at all costs is the airport, unless it has been pre-ordered. The commission fees are extremely high at airports because they know that they have a captive audience!
It is advisable to take sufficient cash with you to cover your entire trip, as using cash machines in other countries usually incurs a surcharge and some banks charge a fee for withdrawing money in foreign countries.
Using credit and debit cards abroad to make purchases in shops and restaurants can also be useful. It is best to make these payments in the local currency, known as dynamic currency conversion, where possible. If you are given the option to pay in sterling or the local currency it is best to choose the local currency, as, even though you will know exactly how much you are going to be charged in Sterling, paying this way usually results in a much poorer exchange rate provided by the retailer than the one you are likely to receive from your card company.
It is not advisable to take out foreign currency on a credit card as most providers will charge cash advance fees as well as immediate interest which can be at a rate exceeding 20%.
If you know you will be renting a car on your holiday it is usually cheaper to make the booking early and to sort out the insurance before you leave the UK. If you are likely to rent a car abroad several times a year there are stand-alone insurance policies available to waiver excesses. It can also be expensive to hire a sat-nav system abroad or to buy one when travelling so if you already own one then it may be a good idea to take it with you.
Planned excursions whilst you are away can often also be purchased in advance from the UK in many instances. Discounts may be available for larger parties if there are a group of you travelling together.



Another way of ensuring that your travel cash goes further is to book an All Inclusive holiday. These are particularly good for people on a tight budget. Sometimes such holidays also include kids clubs and daily entertainment in the booking cost as well as the food and drink.
A final piece of advice is to always inform your bank prior to travelling abroad. If they have not been warned that you will be using your cards abroad they may well block its use in order to prevent fraud. Let them know which countries you intend to visit and for what length of time just in case your card is cloned and used after you return home. Your bank should also be able to give you a 24 hour helpline telephone number should you run into any problems with your card whilst you are away.

Darren Winters
 
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